The NBA approved sweeping changes to the draft lottery on Thursday that will strip the teams with the worst records from receiving the best odds of winning the No. 1 pick, something the league hopes will prevent tanking.
A vote by the league’s Board of Governors made the plan official for the next three seasons. The “3-2-1 Lottery” proposal expands the event to 16 teams, flattens odds of winning the No. 1 pick and will try to deter teams from tanking by lowering lottery chances for teams that have the worst records.
They can still win the lottery, but they’ll have to buck odds to do so. The three worst teams will have 5.4% odds of winning, while teams that finish with the fourth- through 10th-worst records will all have 8.1% chances of winning.
“Since October, the league office has met with key stakeholders to discuss current competitive incentives and solicit ideas aimed at discouraging tanking,” the league said Thursday in announcing the move. “That process led to the creation of the 3-2-1 Lottery.”
ESPN reported the vote was 29-1, with Memphis casting the lone dissenting ballot.
The vote on Thursday fulfilled a promise from Commissioner Adam Silver, who vowed that the league — which has changed the lottery system about a half-dozen times in the last 40 or so years — would strongly address the tanking issue before next season.
Starting with next year’s lottery, the 16 participating teams will all get somewhere between one and three lottery balls — the 3-2-1 part — awarded in this manner:
— The losers of the No. 7 vs. No. 8 play-in games in both conferences will get one lottery ball each.
— The No. 9 and No. 10 seeds going into the play-in tournament will get two lottery balls each.
— The remaining 10 teams that miss the playoffs and the play-in will all get three lottery balls — with the exception of the three worst teams in the standings. They will enter “draft relegation” and have one of their lottery balls taken away, which is the anti-tanking part of the plan.
Tanking was a huge — and from the league standpoint, regrettable — talking point this season. The Utah Jazz were fined $500,000 “for conduct detrimental to the league” over the way two top players were held out of the fourth quarter of a pair of games, one of which the Jazz actually won. The Jazz had reason to limit their win total this season; too many victories would have meant risking a chance to have a top-eight pick in next month’s draft, a pick that Utah wound up securing.
Utah was among five teams — draft lottery winner Washington, Indiana, Memphis and Brooklyn were the others — that had winning percentages below .180 after the All-Star break. There had never been a season where so many teams lost so regularly after the break, until now.
Under the new plan, the teams that finish with the three worst records cannot fall below the No. 12 pick. But the best odds of winning No. 1 would go to the other seven teams that miss the play-in and the playoffs.
The No. 9 and No. 10 play-in seeds would also have a 5.4% chance of winning the lottery, and the losers of the No. 7 vs. No. 8 play-in games would both have a 2.7% chance.
There are other caveats within the new plan, including that no team can win back-to-back No. 1 picks and that the NBA will now have “expanded disciplinary authority” to address tanking — with potential moves including lowering teams’ lottery odds or even changing draft positions.
The new rules will be in effect through 2029. The Board of Governors will have to vote again, at some point, to either extend the new plan or come up with a different one before the 2030 lottery.
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