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What happens after the S&P has a big quarter

The first quarter of this year was the 18th time since 1982 that the Standard & Poor’s 500 index has gained 10 percent or more. In all but two of the previous cases, the S&P rose in the following quarter:
Quarter S&P percentage gain Next quarter
4Q 1982 16.8 +8.8
4Q 1985 16 +13.1
1Q 1986 13.1 +5
1Q 1987 20.5 +4.2
1Q 1991 13.6 -1.1
2Q 1997 16.9 +7
1Q 1998 13.5 +2.9
4Q 1998 20.9 +4.7
4Q 1999 14.5 +2
4Q 2001 10.3 -0.06
2Q 2003 14.9 +2.2
4Q 2003 11.6 +1.3
2Q 2009 15.2 +15
3Q 2009 15 +5.5
3Q 2010 10.7 +10.2
4Q 2010 10.2 +5.4
4Q 2011 11.2 +12
1Q 2012 +12 ?
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Source: FactSet, other sources.

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