SAN JUAN, Puerto Rico (AP) — As U.S. President Donald Trump pushes for change in Cuba’s leadership, speculation is mounting about who, if anyone, might replace Cuban President Miguel Díaz-Canel.

As Raúl Castro’s handpicked largely figurehead successor in 2018, Díaz-Canel has been the only leader without the last name Castro to govern since the 1959 revolution. He still has two years left in his term —- but some experts and a growing number of Cubans doubt he’ll make it.

Two Castro cousins have come into focus as potential replacements, experts said.

Oscar Pérez-Oliva Fraga — Raúl Castro’s 55-year-old great nephew — has shot to power since emerging from obscurity several years ago. He became minister of Cuba’s influential Ministry of Foreign Trade and Investment in May 2024 and was appointed the island’s deputy prime minister in October.

By contrast, Raúl Guillermo Rodríguez Castro — Raúl Castro’s grandson — has never occupied a government post, having served as his grandfather’s bodyguard and later as head of Cuba’s equivalent of the U.S. Secret Service. He has long been known as “Raulito,” or “Little Raúl” and is new to the spotlight cast on high-ranking government officials.

But he made news last month when he secretly met on the sidelines of a Caribbean Community summit in St. Kitts with U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio. At the time, Rubio refused to say who he was speaking to in the Cuban government.

“The role Raulito is playing right now is the connection between Raúl Castro and whoever is on the U.S. side,” said Sebastián Arcos, interim director of the Cuban Research Institute at Florida International University. “He enjoys the absolute trust of Raúl Castro.”

But, Arcos and other experts argue, even should someone with the Castro pedigree take the presidency, little is likely to change.

“Party leadership doesn’t mean anything in Cuba,” Arcos said. “The party is just a hollow façade. The real power resides in the military, under Raúl Castro.”

The 94-year-old remains at the helm as general, appears at key events and is considered the most powerful person in Cuba, a country subject to more than six decades of absolute rule, first by revolutionary leader Fidel Castro, and then for the past decade, his younger brother Raúl.

And that is unlikely to change.

“The most significant thing that we have to consider for the last 30 years in Cuba is the absolute reluctance of this regime to implement serious structural economic reforms,” Arcos said. “Asking them for political reforms would be too much.”

One Castro cousin is described as a technocrat

Pérez-Oliva studied electrical engineering before becoming director general of an import company and then business director within Cuba’s Mariel Special Development Zone. That’s all the Cuban government has officially shared on Pérez-Oliva.

Online, there are barely traces of him; he doesn’t even have a Wikipedia page. His X account is private and inscribed with this sentiment: “Committed to the Revolution and to the ideas of FIDEL.”

Pérez-Oliva until only recently became a public figure, traveling with Cuban Foreign Minister Bruno Rodríguez to Russia and Vietnam earlier this year. He also made a public appearance in early February, when a massive blackout hit Cuba’s western region. While other high-ranking officials solely blamed the U.S. energy blockade, Pérez-Oliva acknowledged otherwise.

“We don’t want to justify ourselves with the blockade; there are a number of internal deficiencies,” he said in a TV interview with state media.

A key achievement came in December, when Pérez-Oliva was named a deputy within Cuba’s National Assembly Popular Power — a requirement for any Cuban president.

Carlos M. Rodríguez Arechavaleta, a Cuba expert and professor at the Iberoamerican University in Mexico City, said Pérez-Oliva has the profile of a technocrat with commercial negotiation skills. “This could be a more ideological figure … a more technocratic, potentially reformist-oriented official,” he said.

Arcos said he believes that Díaz-Canel could “very well be replaced” by Pérez-Oliva.

“This man looks more proper, more polished. He has been through more important positions,” Arcos said. “This is a family business.”

Known as Raulito, this cousin was a fixture on Cuba’s party scene

Rodríguez Castro is the son of Raúl Castro’s oldest daughter, and his father is Luis Alberto Rodríguez López-Calleja — one of Cuba’s most powerful figures who ran GAESA, the military’s long-standing business wing, before his unexpected death in July 2022.

In his youth, Rodríguez Castro became a fixture at Cuba’s music and party scenes. During his public appearances, people would poke each other with an elbow and whisper, ‘That’s El Cangrejo’ — a nickname that means “The Crab,” because he was born with an extra finger.

He went to military school and became Raúl Castro’s bodyguard, accompanying him on trips abroad. Rodríguez Castro was later promoted to head of the Cuban equivalent of the U.S. Secret Service, but with a mission to spy on the country’s leadership, Arcos said.

Then, on March 13, experts noted that Rodríguez Castro was present at a government meeting with Díaz-Canel, when he announced that Cuba had held talks with the U.S. government. He also was present at the news conference that followed.

It was a rare public appearance tied to government business — and drew some public scrutiny from ordinary Cubans.

“The Crab doesn’t have a position there, so I don’t know why he was there,” said 20-year-old Maday Beltrán Acosta. “People posted a lot of comments about it.”

Beltrán Acosta said she also is bothered by Rodríguez Castro’s social media posts because they feature “abundant food.”

“The people are suffering while he enjoys life,” she said.

But Arcos said he doesn’t believe Rodríguez Castro could be Cuba’s next president, at least in public, because his name would reflect a continuation of the island’s current leadership, not a change as demanded by Trump and Rubio.

“He cannot be the transitional figure,” Arcos said, “because his last name disqualifies him.”

“Not up for negotiation”

While speculation remains rampant over whether Cuba might have a new president before Díaz-Canel’s term expires, experts note he is an unpopular leader.

He ordered a crackdown following the July 2021 anti-government protests that stemmed from food shortages, the largest of their kind in decades.

Under Díaz-Canel, Cuba’s economic and energy crises have deepened.

“The living conditions of the population are on the verge of a humanitarian crisis,” said Rodríguez Arechavaleta. “The social situation is already unsustainable.”

Arcos added: “He’s a man with a pot belly in a country where everybody is trying to find (something) to eat.”

Last week, Deputy Foreign Minister Carlos Fernández de Cossío refuted comments about a possible change in the political system or the departure of Díaz-Canel as part of ongoing talks with the U.S.

“The Cuban political system is not up for negotiation, nor is the president, nor the position of any official in Cuba, subject to negotiation with the United States or with the government of any other country,” Fernández de Cossío told reporters.

Arcos, the Cuban expert, said he cannot imagine Raúl Castro relinquishing power but believes Díaz-Canel could be replaced, referring to him as “a gray apparatchik” within the party when he was appointed president.

He noted that Castro’s eventual death “would be the kind of shock that would crack the regime.”

“No one really knows who’s coming up to replace him,” Arcos said. “For the first time ever in Cuba, you have the possibility of several people struggling for power.”

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Associated Press reporter Milexsy Durán in Havana contributed.