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IMF upgrades outlook for suprisingly reslient world economy to 3.3% growth this year

WASHINGTON (AP) — An unexpectedly sturdy world economy is likely to shrug off President Donald Trump’s protectionist trade policies this year, thanks partly to a surge of investment in artificial intelligence in North America and Asia, the International Monetary Fund said in a report out Monday.

The 191-nation lending organization expects that global growth will come in at 3.3% this year, same as in 2025 but up from from the 3.1% it had forecast for 2026 back in October.

The world economy “continues to show notable resilience despite significant US-led trade disruptions and heightened uncertainty,” IMF chief economist Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas and his colleague Tobias Adrian wrote in a blog post accompanying the latest update to the fund’s World Economic Outlook.

The U.S. economy, benefiting from the strongest pace of technology investment since 2001, is forecast to expand 2.4% this year, an upgrade on the fund’s October forecast and on expected 2025 growth — both 2.1%.

China — the world’s second-largest economy — is forecast to see 4.5% growth, an improvement on the 4.2% the IMF had predicted October, partly because a trade truce with the United States has reduced American tariffs on Chinese exports.

India, which as supplanted China as the world’s fastest-growing major economy, is expected to see growth decelerate from 7.3% last year (when it was juiced by an unexpectedly strong second half) to a still-healthy 6.4% in 2026.

Rising coal demand overshadows Southeast Asia’s transition to renewable energy

HANOI, Vietnam (AP) — Southeast Asia’s demand for coal is growing faster than anywhere else in the world, undermining efforts to lower carbon emissions that contribute to global warming. Regional coal demand will rise by more than 4% a year through the end of the decade, driven by rising needs for electricity as economies grow across the region of more than 600 million, according to a recent International Energy Agency report. Indonesia, a nation of about 285 million people, will account for more than half of that, followed by Vietnam. The trends raise questions over the $15.5 billion-dollar deals both countries signed in 2022 in Just Energy Transition Partnerships, or JETP, to help fund their renewable energy transitions. Moves under U.S. President Donald Trump to reverse policies meant to address climate change add to the challenges. This is a decisive decade for Southeast Asia as the region bears much of the burden of extreme weather and other impacts from climate change.
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