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Is ESPN selling Wizards short with a 34-win prediction for 2022-23 season?

By Chase Hughes

Is ESPN selling Wizards short with 34-win prediction? originally appeared on NBC Sports Washington

It may soon prove to be a premature exercise if Kevin Durant gets traded, but ESPN has revealed their 2022-23 NBA predictions and they see a difficult road for the Wizards in a much-improved Eastern Conference.

ESPN has the Wizards projected to win 34 games, one fewer than they did last year, and finish 12th in the East. That would put them two spots outside of the play-in picture, which is certainly not how the organization hopes things will go this year.

Here is the reasoning, per ESPN’s illustrious Jamal Collier: 

“Missing the playoffs and play-in tournament altogether, would be a massive disappointment for both Washington and Charlotte, but the Eastern Conference continues to get stronger and deeper while neither team made convincing enough offseason moves for our panel to consider them serious play-in contenders….

The Wizards, meanwhile, are hoping the duo of Bradley Beal and Kristaps Porzingis will be productive enough to keep them out of this group and give the team some direction after a meandering over past few seasons.”

Indeed, it would be a disappointment. The Wizards didn’t re-sign Beal to one of the largest contracts in NBA history to then just miss the postseason entirely. They may not be set to pay the luxury tax, but they are in line for the 12th-highest payroll in the league, per Spotrac. That level of investment makes the playoffs an obvious goal.

Granted, as ESPN notes, the East is much, much better than it was just a few years ago. And there are some clear variables that will determine the Wizards’ success this season like, for instance, the health of Porzingis who has only played in 61% of his team’s regular season games the last two years.

Washington is also banking on Beal returning to his All-Star form and general improvement both in 3-point shooting and defense. They ranked in the bottom-third of the league in threes made and defensive rating last season, which was not ideal.

Other variables would include the development of their young players. If Rui Hachimura, Deni Avdija, Corey Kispert and Daniel Gafford, in particular, come back the same players, the Wizards may not improve much overall. But if any number of them make leaps forward, it could drastically change their outlook.

For what it’s worth, ESPN has been fairly accurate with these things in recent years. Last season, they projected the Wizards to win 36 games and they won 35. In 2020-21, ESPN was also just one win off, predicting 35 when they won 34. While their 2022-23 projection may seem harsh, each of the last two years they forecasted one more win for the Wizards than they ultimately achieved.

ESPN has been eerily precise with their Wizards predictions, but naturally, they have gotten other ones wrong. Last year, they had the Cavaliers winning just 26 games and they won 44. They thought the Timberwolves would win 31 games and they won 46.

Can ESPN make it three years in a row hitting the Wizards’ win total nearly on the nose? Or will the Wizards be one of the teams that bucks their expectations this time around? Stay tuned.

Kristaps Porzingis keeps setting career-highs; what does it mean?

By Chase Hughes
Porzingis keeps setting career-highs originally appeared on NBC Sports WashingtonIn each of his last two games, Kristaps Porzingis has done something he's never done before in his distinguished NBA career.In Monday's win over the Timberwolves, he scored a career-high 41 points, including 29 points by halftime, the most he's ever had in a single half. He followed that up with a career-high 19 rebounds on Wednesday against the Nets, albeit in a loss, but to complement 27 points on an efficient 8-for-14 shooting, including 2-of-3 from three (...and 9-of-14 on free throws).Through 21 games, Porzingis is now averaging 21.6 points, second-most in his career; that's with a career-high 60.1 true shooting percentage, which accounts for threes (he's shooting 38.2%) and free throws (79.5%). Not only has Porzingis stayed healthy through the first quarter of the Wizards' season, but he's also given them possibly the best basketball of his career.While the Wizards are still searching for consistency as a team, now with a .500 record at 11-11, things are going extraordinarily well for Porzingis individually. Given what he represents in terms of his talent, his contract and his future, all of this presents some interesting dynamics in the short- and long-term.In the interim, it means the Wizards have a chance to be a pretty good team. Most probably would have pointed to his health as one of the biggest X-factors for how the Wizards would perform this season. It remains very early to declare victory in that regard, but so far so good and he's proving how effective he can be when he's on the floor.While Porzingis is playing like this, it presents the question of how the Wizards can better utilize his production. Is there a scenario where he should be featured even more in their offense? While the Wizards have achieved remarkable balance with the shot attempts between Porzingis (15.3/g), Bradley Beal (17.1/g) and Kyle Kuzma (17.0/g), Porzingis is third on that list. To be fair, he does have the highest usage percentage (26.8).The reasons why the Wizards have had trouble taking off on an extended stretch of wins arguably have little to do with the performance of their top-three scorers. It has been more about a lack of depth, in part due to injuries, and their inconsistent shooting and defense. But perhaps there are ways to capitalize on Porzingis playing like a legitimate star at the moment.In the bigger picture, Porzingis' play so far is interesting to analyze. For one, the Wizards' trade to acquire him from the Mavericks is taking on new context.Remember, the Wizards traded Spencer Dinwiddie and Davis Bertans to get him. Dinwiddie has been very good this year, averaging 17.0 points while shooting 40.0% and appearing in all 20 of Dallas' games. Bertans, meanwhile, has played in only six games because of a knee injury.If Dinwiddie keeps it up and Bertans makes his threes, the Mavs could be in good shape because of the depth they provide. But Dallas originally traded for Porzingis hoping to put another star next to Luka Doncic and right now he's playing like one.Now Porzingis is in Washington and thriving, and if he keeps it up, his contract future could become more of a question mark. The Wizards have him signed through next season at $36 million, though on a player option. While that's a lot of money, he could play his way into a situation where it's possible to earn a lucrative long-term deal this offseason.Porzingis' contract option doesn't seem like quite the certainty to be declined that Kuzma's is, as he's due to make $13 million next year and is also having a career season. But the more Porzingis plays, the more he will create options for himself.The fact that both Porzingis and Kuzma are having the seasons they are, plus Beal is shooting much more efficiently than he has in recent years, makes the Wizards' record seem in some ways not indicative of their overall upside. On one hand, you could argue they have underachieved given their top-three players have performed so well, at least statistically.The flip side of that would be that there is potential for them to be a very good team and to win at a higher frequency than they have so far. To put it all together and go on a serious run, they will have to fill in the gaps that have plagued them so far. Perimeter defense and bench scoring would be two areas, for instance, that could stand to improve.But the core pieces seem to be there for them to build around with Porzingis representing maybe the most positive development of the Wizards' season so far.
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