Skip to main content

The Next Bull Market for Gold May Have Just Begun

With stocks pricey and investors getting valuation jitters, precious metals may be just the thing to add a little luster to your portfolio.

For starters, there are reasons to believe that a bull market for gold and silver might be beginning.

Not long ago, gold and silver prices went through a rough patch. In September 2011 the price for gold hit nearly $1,900 an ounce before plummeting to $1,050 in December 2015, according to data from the London Bullion Market Association. Since then prices have risen slowly, with gold trading recently at about $1,250. Silver prices followed a similar pattern.

[Read: 7 Basic Materials Investments to Buy in 2017.]

The uptick in prices could continue because gold has a long history as the asset that investors flock to when everything else seems risky. And for some investors, the stock market is flashing a yellow warning light now.

“This is not a really good time to be buying equities,” says Don Coxe, chairman of Coxe Advisors LLC in Chicago, given their high price-earnings ratios.

A case in point is the cyclically adjusted price-earnings ratio, or CAPE, which is at 29.77, the highest it’s been since 2002. Indeed, in the past when the CAPE was this high, periods of much lower stock prices followed.

“You want to be buying the assets that are not equities, or the financial antimatter,” Coxe says. By financial antimatter, he means gold. Coxe worries that central banks, such as the Federal Reserve, have been printing so much money that inflation will rise, destabilizing the stock market.

Coxe likes gold because it has a limited supply. Although it doesn’t pay a dividend the way many stocks do, gold tends to hold its value over time.

Other experts also see gold’s potential to shine as signs of a slowing economy emerge.

“There is a huge divergence between soft and hard data,” says Ronald-Peter Stoeferle, managing partner and fund manager at boutique firm Incrementum AG in Lichtenstein.

Soft data, which reflect how investors or consumers feel about the economy, can be hard to quantify. Hard data, on the other hand, refer to quantifiable economic readings based on dollars or output.

For example, consider the discrepancy between consumer confidence (soft data) and auto sales (hard data). Despite dipping slightly in May, the Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index, which tends to bounce around a lot, is at levels not seen since just before the financial crisis. The index measures how people feel about the economy. Apparently, their optimism is running much higher than a few years ago.

Meanwhile, auto sales have declined steadily every month this year. Another hard data point: Sales of durable goods, such as dishwashers and refrigerators, have stayed stubbornly stagnant. Neither indicator points to a strong economy.

[See: 7 ETFs for a Solid Portfolio Defense.]

Worse, a sudden shock in the form of a trade war or a sizable increase in borrowing costs could plunge the economy into recession. That, at least, is a scenario Stoeferle considers plausible.

Which brings us back to gold.

“Recessions are a great environment for gold,” he says.

During the last two recessions, gold prices increased while the economy contracted, according to the MacroTrends website. When the U.S. entered a recession in March 2001, gold cost $263 a troy ounce. By November 2001, when the recession had ended, gold was $276. The price gain was even greater during the Great Recession. In December 2007, gold traded at $803, but by June 2009, when the recession ended, gold prices had risen to $935. So if Coxe and Stoeferle are right, owning some gold should pay off.

How much to buy. Because their prices aren’t correlated with stocks or bonds, precious metals can reduce a portfolio’s overall volatility or risk. That’s why many smart investors suggest holding 5 to 15 percent of a portfolio in gold and other precious metals, with some people believing that number should be higher.

The optimal amount of gold to hold has fluctuated between 27 and 30 percent since the late 1960s, says Jeff Christian, managing partner and founder of specialty commodities consulting firm CPM Group in New York. He estimates that total global gold holdings today amount to around 0.7 percent of assets, which means the world is massively underinvested in gold. If, collectively, investors upped their allocation to gold just a little, its price would jump.

Ways to invest. The SPDR Gold Shares exchange-traded fund (ticker: GLD), which holds bars of solid gold bullion, is the largest and most liquid of all the gold exchange-traded funds. Its annual expenses are 0.4 percent, or $40 dollars per $10,000 invested. For silver, the iShares Silver Trust ( SLV) has annual expenses of 0.5 percent, or $50 dollars per $10,000 invested. For other ETFs and mutual funds with exposure to gold and silver, see U.S. News Best Funds rankings for equity precious metals.

Investors can also buy physical gold, such as coins. The trick is to buy coins that are priced based on their precious metals content rather than those that have value based on their condition. The latter are known as numismatic coins, the former bullion coins.

American Eagles, in both gold and silver, are usually considered bullion coins. They are made by the U.S. Mint and distributed through coin dealers. Buyers should expect to pay a premium of a few percentage points above the gold price.

[See: 8 Gold ETFs to Buy Anytime.]

Although platinum and palladium are also precious metals, their markets are small and heavily influenced by the automobile industry, which uses the materials to make catalytic converters.

More from U.S. News

7 Stocks That Soar in a Recession

The Fastest Ways to Lose All Your Money in the Stock Market

8 Smart Ways to Invest in Metal Stocks

The Next Bull Market for Gold May Have Just Begun originally appeared on usnews.com

Don’t Settle for Student Loans to Pay for Online Education

Online college programs are becoming a more popular choice for prospective students, with one study finding that more than 6 million students enrolled in at least one online course in fall 2015. The popularity of these courses can be attributed in part to their flexibility with working adults' schedules, students' ability to progress more quickly through online programs and, oftentimes, cheaper tuition. [See 10 low-cost online bachelor's programs for out-of-state students.]Online degrees can be beneficial to many college students, but some studies have shown online learners complete their programs at lower rates than students at traditional brick-and-mortar campuses. Individuals with student loans but no degree comprise two-thirds of defaulted borrowers. Though these numbers are not encouraging, just like for traditional programs, there are ways to reduce how much you'll need to borrow for an online program to ensure you won't become one of these statistics. Don't just settle on borrowing student loans to cover the whole cost of your program and living expenses. Instead, start thinking about how to cut costs and cover your balance in different ways, such as the following. -- Grants and scholarships: Even though you are taking an online course, you can still apply and receive grants and scholarships. But your first step should be to complete the Free Application for Federal Student Aid, commonly referred to as the FAFSA, which will allow you to receive a Pell Grant if your expected family contribution is low enough. The EFC criteria and award amounts are adjusted annually, but the 2017-2018 academic year awards range from $606 to $5,920, which could significantly lower the amount you borrow annually. Your next step is to apply for scholarships. You can start by checking online scholarship search engines, such as the Salt Scholarship Search, College Board's BigFuture and Peterson's. But don't forget to take advantage of local organizations and your school's financial aid office. Both may offer scholarships that you can't find with a national scholarship search. [Review these 10 sites to kick off your scholarship search.]For instance, organizations like the Elks Club, Knights of Columbus or the Rotary Club typically offer scholarships annually to local students. Just because you're going to school online doesn't mean you're ineligible. Visit your local library for scholarship listings, and ask around town. You might be surprised how many local organizations offer scholarships. While these scholarships typically aren't large, every little bit counts. Each dollar you receive in a scholarship is a dollar you don't have to borrow and pay interest on. -- Work-study: Another option for online students may be work-study awards. Not all students enrolled in online programs are eligible, but students at some schools -- including, for example, SUNY Empire State College and Liberty University -- are. Work-study awards are not given upfront like scholarships and grants. In most cases, they are an offer to earn up to the awarded amount if you secure an eligible work-study job. While there is a misconception that all work-study jobs must be on campus, students can work for off-campus, nonprofit or public employers as long as the work is in the public's interest. You may be able to work for a for-profit employer if the job is relevant to your course of study. No matter who the outside employer is, it will need to have an established agreement with your college for you to receive work-study funds. Remember, to be eligible for federal financial aid, you must be enrolled and pursuing a degree or certificate. If you're not working toward a credential, Pell Grants and work-study won't be option, but you may still be able to take advantage of private scholarships -- just be sure to read the eligibility criteria carefully. [Explore what to know about financial aid in online programs.]-- Pay as you go: One of the great benefits to enrolling online is the flexible schedule, which can allow you to complete your college coursework around your responsibilities. But prospective students often overlook using their part- or full-time job earnings as an option for paying for college. Almost 80 percent of college students in 2015 worked at least part time while attending classes, according to the National Center for Education Statistics. By budgeting and thinking strategically about your college costs, you can likely reduce your dependence on student loans by paying a portion out of pocket. Many -- but not all -- online programs are less expensive than traditional programs and often have shorter payment periods. Six, eight or 10 weeks are common course durations. Because of the frequency of payments in an online setting, you may be well-placed to pay as you go and possibly avoid borrowing altogether. Attending college online and avoiding student loans may be challenging, but if you are willing to put in the effort, you can limit the amount you need to borrow. More from U.S. News Q&A: Understanding Student Loan Discharge Eligibility Student Loan Refinancing Isn't Right for All Borrowers
Read Next Story