Skip to main content

Trump’s Executive Orders: What Would Repealing Dodd-Frank Mean for Stocks?

President Trump on Friday signed two executive orders designed to ultimately weaken, push back or replace financial regulations he sees as a burden to commerce and growth.

Doing so, however, would return the U.S. to a less regulated pre-financial crisis world, exposing investors and everyday Americans to the same risks that played out in destructive fashion in 2008 and 2009. The risks for the stock market in the long term are huge.

Specifically, the two regulations under attack are the Dodd-Frank Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act of 2010 and the fiduciary rule.

[See: 7 of the Best Stocks to Buy for 2017.]

Dodd-Frank, a lengthy set of regulations signed into law in response to the financial crisis, was designed to limit the risks taken by financial institutions and protect consumers in an effort to limit future crises and bailouts, and look out for the little guy.

The fiduciary rule, on the other hand, is a proposed rule that hasn’t yet gone into effect, giving Trump much more power to influence its eventual implementation. The fiduciary rule requires advisors and brokers to act in the best interests of their clients, essentially prohibiting them from selling self-enriching, higher-fee funds to clients with retirement accounts if they aren’t in the client’s best interest.

Shockingly, this isn’t a rule already.

While gutting the fiduciary rule would be a net negative for many Americans saving for retirement, it’s unclear if there would be any meaningful impact on overall market returns. Turning back the clock on Dodd-Frank however, could have seismic implications on the way the stock market acts in the short and long term.

While it’s unlikely sweeping changes could be made to Dodd-Frank in the very immediate future due to many of the rules already enacted, it could be weakened dramatically over time and much of the complicated process of repeal could be subverted and de facto accomplished by staff changes, who could then enact Trump’s own policies more closely.

Dodd-Frank is a notoriously expansive piece of legislation, but there are several key pieces.

The Volcker rule. “The Volcker Rule was brought into effect to essentially reenact the Glass-Steagall rule,” says Julian Rubenstein, CEO and president of American Asset Management, referring to regulation that was repealed in the late 1990s requiring commercial banks to separate from riskier, trade-happy investment banks.

A world without Glass-Steagall or the Volcker rule is a flawed system, according to Rubinstein, who sees this less regulated world as a payday for big banks at the expense of the working class.

“They get to take all the risk with FDIC-insured money, and then, as we all learned in ’08, if they make a mistake you and I have to cover the losses. That’s a pretty good business model if you think about it, right?”

It certainly is, at least for the Wall Street banks. But not for average Joe taxpayer.

The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau. While abolishing the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau wouldn’t directly have an impact on long-term stock market returns, the indirect consequences for the market could be disastrous. The bureau, established through Dodd-Frank, describes itself as “a U.S. government agency that makes sure banks, lenders and other financial companies treat you fairly.”

It largely helps protect consumers from predatory schemes in credit cards, mortgages and student loans, among other areas.

So what sort of indirect consequences might result if the CFPB lost its power?

“We would probably see a rise in mortgages being written which are not really affordable to consumers or they may not really have the ability to pay,” says Nilesh Vaidya, senior vice president and head of banking and capital markets for Capgemini Financial Services. “More mortgages could be written, but the likelihood for delinquencies would increase as well.”

[See: 9 ETFs to Buy When the Market Tanks.]

If the main cause of the financial crisis were to be summed up into one word, it certainly could be: leverage. Homeowners used too much leverage when buying places that cost more than they could afford, and banks used too much leverage with risky financial instruments no one truly understood.

There’s speculation that Trump could immediately weaken this agency without officially scrapping it by simply replacing its current acting head.

The Financial Stability Oversight Council. The Financial Stability Oversight Council is another prominent spawn of Dodd-Frank, intended to review the systemically important financial institutions.

“If that were to go away, that would be a significant change in market structure. Institutions would be able to use much more leverage than they have today,” Vaidya says. “In some cases that would increase lending, in some cases it would increase more proprietary trading. Other instruments which have become a little less prevalent, like CDOs, would come back into the picture. That would be much more impactful to the market than even the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau.”

From one extreme to another. Even some proponents of less regulation, who generally feel less government restrictions on the financial industry will inevitably lead to higher revenue and earnings, believe there are dangers that should be acknowledged.

“We’ve seen times where financial institutions get a little carried away if some regulations aren’t in place, and we could be pushing ourselves toward another financial mania — which would certainly not be helpful for investors, consumers or banks themselves,” says Tom Stringfellow, president and chief investment officer at Frost Investment Advisors.

Stringfellow noted that JPMorgan Chase & Co, (ticker: JPM) stock was rallying on news of Friday’s executive orders. Shares finished the day with 3.1 percent gains.

“I suspect that there is a moment of investor euphoria taking place right now,” Stringfellow says.

The problem with euphoria in investing, however, is the unrealistic and often unsustainable expectations that come with it — and the ugly back-to-reality market corrections that inevitably follow.

While stripping the financial industry of some of its biggest legal safeguards in decades may indeed boost short-term market returns, instant gratification has never translated to long-term stability.

[Read: 5 Reasons Donald Trump’s Presidency Will Include a Recession.]

Introducing more leverage, less consumer protections, and greater leeway for banks to use the same shady, irresponsible tricks that sparked the Great Recession may be celebrated at first, it’s a proven recipe for disaster in the long run.

More from U.S. News

12 Money Moves to Make in 2017 to Retire Happy

The 10 Most Anticipated IPOs of 2017

The 25 Best Blue-Chip Stocks to Buy for 2017

Trump’s Executive Orders: What Would Repealing Dodd-Frank Mean for Stocks? originally appeared on usnews.com

Don’t Settle for Student Loans to Pay for Online Education

Online college programs are becoming a more popular choice for prospective students, with one study finding that more than 6 million students enrolled in at least one online course in fall 2015. The popularity of these courses can be attributed in part to their flexibility with working adults' schedules, students' ability to progress more quickly through online programs and, oftentimes, cheaper tuition. [See 10 low-cost online bachelor's programs for out-of-state students.]Online degrees can be beneficial to many college students, but some studies have shown online learners complete their programs at lower rates than students at traditional brick-and-mortar campuses. Individuals with student loans but no degree comprise two-thirds of defaulted borrowers. Though these numbers are not encouraging, just like for traditional programs, there are ways to reduce how much you'll need to borrow for an online program to ensure you won't become one of these statistics. Don't just settle on borrowing student loans to cover the whole cost of your program and living expenses. Instead, start thinking about how to cut costs and cover your balance in different ways, such as the following. -- Grants and scholarships: Even though you are taking an online course, you can still apply and receive grants and scholarships. But your first step should be to complete the Free Application for Federal Student Aid, commonly referred to as the FAFSA, which will allow you to receive a Pell Grant if your expected family contribution is low enough. The EFC criteria and award amounts are adjusted annually, but the 2017-2018 academic year awards range from $606 to $5,920, which could significantly lower the amount you borrow annually. Your next step is to apply for scholarships. You can start by checking online scholarship search engines, such as the Salt Scholarship Search, College Board's BigFuture and Peterson's. But don't forget to take advantage of local organizations and your school's financial aid office. Both may offer scholarships that you can't find with a national scholarship search. [Review these 10 sites to kick off your scholarship search.]For instance, organizations like the Elks Club, Knights of Columbus or the Rotary Club typically offer scholarships annually to local students. Just because you're going to school online doesn't mean you're ineligible. Visit your local library for scholarship listings, and ask around town. You might be surprised how many local organizations offer scholarships. While these scholarships typically aren't large, every little bit counts. Each dollar you receive in a scholarship is a dollar you don't have to borrow and pay interest on. -- Work-study: Another option for online students may be work-study awards. Not all students enrolled in online programs are eligible, but students at some schools -- including, for example, SUNY Empire State College and Liberty University -- are. Work-study awards are not given upfront like scholarships and grants. In most cases, they are an offer to earn up to the awarded amount if you secure an eligible work-study job. While there is a misconception that all work-study jobs must be on campus, students can work for off-campus, nonprofit or public employers as long as the work is in the public's interest. You may be able to work for a for-profit employer if the job is relevant to your course of study. No matter who the outside employer is, it will need to have an established agreement with your college for you to receive work-study funds. Remember, to be eligible for federal financial aid, you must be enrolled and pursuing a degree or certificate. If you're not working toward a credential, Pell Grants and work-study won't be option, but you may still be able to take advantage of private scholarships -- just be sure to read the eligibility criteria carefully. [Explore what to know about financial aid in online programs.]-- Pay as you go: One of the great benefits to enrolling online is the flexible schedule, which can allow you to complete your college coursework around your responsibilities. But prospective students often overlook using their part- or full-time job earnings as an option for paying for college. Almost 80 percent of college students in 2015 worked at least part time while attending classes, according to the National Center for Education Statistics. By budgeting and thinking strategically about your college costs, you can likely reduce your dependence on student loans by paying a portion out of pocket. Many -- but not all -- online programs are less expensive than traditional programs and often have shorter payment periods. Six, eight or 10 weeks are common course durations. Because of the frequency of payments in an online setting, you may be well-placed to pay as you go and possibly avoid borrowing altogether. Attending college online and avoiding student loans may be challenging, but if you are willing to put in the effort, you can limit the amount you need to borrow. More from U.S. News Q&A: Understanding Student Loan Discharge Eligibility Student Loan Refinancing Isn't Right for All Borrowers
Read Next Story