Skip to main content

3 Trends Affecting Future Share Prices in the Health Care Industry

One of the most talked about sectors among investors in recent years has been the health care industry. The sector’s prominence in increased global merger and acquisition activity, as well as its direct linkages to major policy initiatives by the Obama administration, have worked to fuel a multi-year rally in health care equities.

From June 2010 to June 2015, the Standard & Poor’s 500 health care sector (190.5 percent) and Nasdaq Biotechnology index (394.0 percent) have meaningfully outperformed the S&P 500 index (122.0 percent). Biotechnology companies have been a particularly hot topic as many market participants have openly questioned the magnitude of the rally while drawing comparisons to the ill-fated technology bubble from the late 1990s and early 2000s.

[See: 11 Health Care ETFs for a Heart-Healthy Portfolio.]

Will the multi-year rally continue? Rather than speculate on the future share price direction of the health care and biotechnology sectors, here are three key fundamental and macroeconomic trends affecting both industries that may help investors better understand this recent period of strong performance and potential signals to watch for in the future within this market segment.

Scientific advancements will continue to broaden the profitability potential for health care companies. It can be seen in the daily headlines — innovation is rapidly expanding within the health care sector. Technological advances and an expedited drug approval process by the FDA have led to lower costs and higher success rates at earlier trial phases. These cost reductions have produced profit opportunities for industry players as they seek to leverage a greater understanding of the root cause of diseases to research and develop more effective end drug solutions. Data shows that the 12-month research and development expenditures for the S&P 500 health care sector have had a 6.4 percent compound annual growth rate since 2005, a figure that is well in excess of the broader S&P 500’s 1.8 percent rate for the same period.

While innovation presents a significant opportunity, acquisition may be another area of potential opportunity. We have seen larger capitalization companies continue to aggressively pursue competitors and smaller firms in an effort to boost their own drug pipelines via acquisition. Despite not even eclipsing the end of the third quarter, global health care M&A activity set a new yearly record in 2015 with $482B in announced transactions.

Global demand trends may provide a foundation for future advancement of the sector. For the first time, the generation dubbed “baby boomers” are approaching 70, which is a meaningful demographic trend not to ignore. The overall population aged 65 and above is expected to increase over the next four decades. Unsurprisingly, the median age of a person living in the U.S. is also expected to rise.

And for the first time, birth rates in the U.S. posted their first increase in 2014 after seven consecutive years of declines. Both increasing births and an increase in the number of elderly individuals are supportive of higher levels of health care utilization in the U.S. and signaling an enormous growth potential for health care within emerging markets.

As individuals in developing countries become wealthier, health care becomes more prominent. According to the World Bank, total health care spending (as a percentage of GDP) has grown by more than 19 percent from 2000 to 2013 in developing economies. Lastly, the sector may be poised to benefit from a wave of newly insured individuals in the U.S. as a result of the Affordable Care Act, typically referred to as Obamacare.

[See: 11 Stocks That Donald Trump Loves.]

Political policy is currently supportive of the health care sector. One of the Obama administration’s key policy initiatives was the signing into law of the ACA in March 2010. That year, health care was the worst-performing sector; however, since then, the ACA has become a tailwind. The stated goal of the ACA is to “make health care more affordable, accessible and of a higher quality.” Since being signed into law, data from the Center for Disease Control indicates that the number of uninsured U.S. residents has fallen by 11 million. As more people in the U.S. avail themselves of health care as a result of accommodative government policy, this increased utilization could represent a continued, significant tailwind for the sector (barring a major policy change) domestically.

When coupled with demographic trends, the recent growth in health care spending by both the public and private sector as a component of domestic GDP highlights the growth in capital spending impacting the industry.

What are the implications? At a high level, the health care sector can represent an attractive hunting ground for investors as it frequently demonstrates a high degree of return distribution among individual companies. For context, from June 3, 2010, to June 30, 2015, the Russell 3000 Healthcare benchmark (an all capitalization index) posted a gain of 176.8 percent. For that same period, the 10 best-performing stocks in the index averaged a gain of 1,823.1 percent, while the 10 worst performing stocks averaged a loss of 73.6 percent.

[See: The 9 Best Investors of All Time.]

The arrival of new technologies, development of new drugs and potential for further M&A activity in the sector should work to facilitate continued dispersion. Government policy and demographic trends may continue to provide a tailwind as companies strive to capitalize on the current macro environment.

More from U.S. News

Oil ETFs: 8 Ways to Invest in Black Gold

Artificial Intelligence Stocks: 10 Companies Betting on AI

10 Ways to Play in the Asia-Pacific Stocks Pool

3 Trends Affecting Future Share Prices in the Health Care Industry originally appeared on usnews.com

Don’t Settle for Student Loans to Pay for Online Education

Online college programs are becoming a more popular choice for prospective students, with one study finding that more than 6 million students enrolled in at least one online course in fall 2015. The popularity of these courses can be attributed in part to their flexibility with working adults' schedules, students' ability to progress more quickly through online programs and, oftentimes, cheaper tuition. [See 10 low-cost online bachelor's programs for out-of-state students.]Online degrees can be beneficial to many college students, but some studies have shown online learners complete their programs at lower rates than students at traditional brick-and-mortar campuses. Individuals with student loans but no degree comprise two-thirds of defaulted borrowers. Though these numbers are not encouraging, just like for traditional programs, there are ways to reduce how much you'll need to borrow for an online program to ensure you won't become one of these statistics. Don't just settle on borrowing student loans to cover the whole cost of your program and living expenses. Instead, start thinking about how to cut costs and cover your balance in different ways, such as the following. -- Grants and scholarships: Even though you are taking an online course, you can still apply and receive grants and scholarships. But your first step should be to complete the Free Application for Federal Student Aid, commonly referred to as the FAFSA, which will allow you to receive a Pell Grant if your expected family contribution is low enough. The EFC criteria and award amounts are adjusted annually, but the 2017-2018 academic year awards range from $606 to $5,920, which could significantly lower the amount you borrow annually. Your next step is to apply for scholarships. You can start by checking online scholarship search engines, such as the Salt Scholarship Search, College Board's BigFuture and Peterson's. But don't forget to take advantage of local organizations and your school's financial aid office. Both may offer scholarships that you can't find with a national scholarship search. [Review these 10 sites to kick off your scholarship search.]For instance, organizations like the Elks Club, Knights of Columbus or the Rotary Club typically offer scholarships annually to local students. Just because you're going to school online doesn't mean you're ineligible. Visit your local library for scholarship listings, and ask around town. You might be surprised how many local organizations offer scholarships. While these scholarships typically aren't large, every little bit counts. Each dollar you receive in a scholarship is a dollar you don't have to borrow and pay interest on. -- Work-study: Another option for online students may be work-study awards. Not all students enrolled in online programs are eligible, but students at some schools -- including, for example, SUNY Empire State College and Liberty University -- are. Work-study awards are not given upfront like scholarships and grants. In most cases, they are an offer to earn up to the awarded amount if you secure an eligible work-study job. While there is a misconception that all work-study jobs must be on campus, students can work for off-campus, nonprofit or public employers as long as the work is in the public's interest. You may be able to work for a for-profit employer if the job is relevant to your course of study. No matter who the outside employer is, it will need to have an established agreement with your college for you to receive work-study funds. Remember, to be eligible for federal financial aid, you must be enrolled and pursuing a degree or certificate. If you're not working toward a credential, Pell Grants and work-study won't be option, but you may still be able to take advantage of private scholarships -- just be sure to read the eligibility criteria carefully. [Explore what to know about financial aid in online programs.]-- Pay as you go: One of the great benefits to enrolling online is the flexible schedule, which can allow you to complete your college coursework around your responsibilities. But prospective students often overlook using their part- or full-time job earnings as an option for paying for college. Almost 80 percent of college students in 2015 worked at least part time while attending classes, according to the National Center for Education Statistics. By budgeting and thinking strategically about your college costs, you can likely reduce your dependence on student loans by paying a portion out of pocket. Many -- but not all -- online programs are less expensive than traditional programs and often have shorter payment periods. Six, eight or 10 weeks are common course durations. Because of the frequency of payments in an online setting, you may be well-placed to pay as you go and possibly avoid borrowing altogether. Attending college online and avoiding student loans may be challenging, but if you are willing to put in the effort, you can limit the amount you need to borrow. More from U.S. News Q&A: Understanding Student Loan Discharge Eligibility Student Loan Refinancing Isn't Right for All Borrowers
Read Next Story