Skip to main content

GIS Stock: 4 Things to Shelve About General Mills

It isn’t easy to find strong growth in the consumer staples sector these days. After years of run-ups, analysts admit it’s difficult to uncover opportunities that are large enough to impact these typically very large companies.

But that doesn’t mean the stocks aren’t improving. Over the past year, the Standard & Poor’s 500 index of large consumer staples moved up 10 percent. General Mills (ticker: GIS), however, blitzed that mark, jumping 26 percent despite seeing sales fall 6 percent in 2015.

[See: 10 Tips for Couples and Young Families to Build Wealth.]

Somehow, despite the decline in demand for many of General Mills’ most important segments, including cereals and yogurts, the company hasn’t lost a step in the market. What’s driving this push forward and can it continue? The answer isn’t nearly as clear as investors might hope.

The taste for cereal has waned. The cereal market in the U.S. has hit a wall. Over the past year, demand for cereals have fallen 2 percent and General Mills has felt the shift since it owns a 30 percent share in the ready-to-eat cereal market. Its sales in the space fell about 1 percent last year.

But they’re not alone on this. Kellogg Co. (K) revenues fell 7 percent last year, largely due to the same trend. “On a high level, you want your competitors to be strong,” says Pablo Zuanic, an analyst for Susquehanna International, based in Stamford, Connecticut. “A strong Kellogg helps them.”

That’s because a thriving Kellogg indicates that the cereal industry has growth again, which is where General Mills gains about 23 percent of its U.S. retail sales. To make matters worse, the yogurt segment, spearheaded by Yoplait, has also begun to decline, falling 7 percent a year after it rose 5 percent in fiscal year 2015.

To tackle these trends, General Mills has looked toward organic offerings as a way to entice consumers back. In 2014, it bought organic and natural food maker Annie’s for $820 million. “A lot of traditional food companies are trying to diversify their portfolios to get more naturals organics in them,” says Jack Russo, an analyst for Edward Jones.

“Annie’s has been pretty successful,” he adds, but “it’s too small to move the needle,” on General Mills’ $16.6 billion in sales.

The Kraft-Heinz merger has put every company on notice. Last year, Kraft Foods merged with H.J. Heinz to create one of the largest food companies in the world in Kraft Heinz Co. (KHC). One big reason for the merger was that the companies struggled to find organic growth in the U.S. market. This has fueled speculation that other mergers will take place in the food segment, after Kraft Heinz has climbed 21 percent in 2016.

“The fact that Kraft Heinz is doing well, delivering on targets,” Zuanic says, “that assumes more transactions down the road.”

There’s currently a major potential merger in discussion within the sector, as Mondelez International (MDLZ) has pursued Hershey Co. (HSY), although it’s unclear if those talks will move beyond a conversation. Hershey has denied Mondelez’s initial $23 billion offer.

[Read: Mergermania: Why Mergers Could Make for Big Winners in 2016.]

While General Mills hasn’t faced as much direct heat, in part because “given their size, few companies can buy them,” Zuanic says, it has become a popular buyout choice for forecasters. Zuanic says that KHC could look at General Mills because there’s not a lot of overlap in products, for example. Plus, to affect its performance, Kraft Heinz would need to buy a very large company.

Guessing who’s next to be bought out has become a game, Russo says. But this talk has pushed up the company’s stock price, even though it’s unclear if any merger will materialize.

Cutting costs has been General Mills’ answer. General Mills’ U.S. sales account for 60 percent of its revenues. In an effort to counter the 6 percent fall in U.S. retail sales over the past two years, it has undergone a cost-cutting effort. It plans to find $600 million in annual savings by the end of 2018.

These cuts have come in a variety of forms, including layoffs, advertising reductions and decreases in travel budgets. Last week, the company announced it would reduce its employee count by about 1,400 workers by closing a number of manufacturing plants around the globe, including potentially the original Progresso soup plant in Vineland, New Jersey.

There are limits, however, to what General Mills can do. In order to keep prime shelf space in retailers’ stores, for example, there are certain expectations to maintain a high level of advertising to promote the products. This means Betty Crocker products land at eye-level when walking through Wal-Mart Stores (WMT), in part because Wal-Mart knows the advertising will support the placement. “It costs a lot of money to maintain this,” Russo says.

This limits how much it can grow profits through cuts alone.

It’s near the height of its historical range. When it comes to the stock, the recent rise in the company has left it expensive. With a 24 price-earnings ratio, it’s at the high end of its historical range of 16 to 25 P/E, according to Russo’s analysis.

The main reason it has risen so high is because of the prediction of a merger at some point. However, it’s also because the company throws a large portion of its cash — typically more than 90 percent of its free cash flow — back to investors, including a 2.5 percent dividend yield.

[See: 7 Stocks to Buy When a Recession Hits.]

But without a clear avenue for growth, it makes buying into General Mills at this price point difficult, except for those dividend chasers out there.

More from U.S. News

Artificial Intelligence Stocks: 10 Companies Betting on AI

8 Soaring Stocks That Suffered the Big Bounce

10 Ways to Play the Explosive World of Small-Cap Stocks

GIS Stock: 4 Things to Shelve About General Mills originally appeared on usnews.com

Don’t Settle for Student Loans to Pay for Online Education

Online college programs are becoming a more popular choice for prospective students, with one study finding that more than 6 million students enrolled in at least one online course in fall 2015. The popularity of these courses can be attributed in part to their flexibility with working adults' schedules, students' ability to progress more quickly through online programs and, oftentimes, cheaper tuition. [See 10 low-cost online bachelor's programs for out-of-state students.]Online degrees can be beneficial to many college students, but some studies have shown online learners complete their programs at lower rates than students at traditional brick-and-mortar campuses. Individuals with student loans but no degree comprise two-thirds of defaulted borrowers. Though these numbers are not encouraging, just like for traditional programs, there are ways to reduce how much you'll need to borrow for an online program to ensure you won't become one of these statistics. Don't just settle on borrowing student loans to cover the whole cost of your program and living expenses. Instead, start thinking about how to cut costs and cover your balance in different ways, such as the following. -- Grants and scholarships: Even though you are taking an online course, you can still apply and receive grants and scholarships. But your first step should be to complete the Free Application for Federal Student Aid, commonly referred to as the FAFSA, which will allow you to receive a Pell Grant if your expected family contribution is low enough. The EFC criteria and award amounts are adjusted annually, but the 2017-2018 academic year awards range from $606 to $5,920, which could significantly lower the amount you borrow annually. Your next step is to apply for scholarships. You can start by checking online scholarship search engines, such as the Salt Scholarship Search, College Board's BigFuture and Peterson's. But don't forget to take advantage of local organizations and your school's financial aid office. Both may offer scholarships that you can't find with a national scholarship search. [Review these 10 sites to kick off your scholarship search.]For instance, organizations like the Elks Club, Knights of Columbus or the Rotary Club typically offer scholarships annually to local students. Just because you're going to school online doesn't mean you're ineligible. Visit your local library for scholarship listings, and ask around town. You might be surprised how many local organizations offer scholarships. While these scholarships typically aren't large, every little bit counts. Each dollar you receive in a scholarship is a dollar you don't have to borrow and pay interest on. -- Work-study: Another option for online students may be work-study awards. Not all students enrolled in online programs are eligible, but students at some schools -- including, for example, SUNY Empire State College and Liberty University -- are. Work-study awards are not given upfront like scholarships and grants. In most cases, they are an offer to earn up to the awarded amount if you secure an eligible work-study job. While there is a misconception that all work-study jobs must be on campus, students can work for off-campus, nonprofit or public employers as long as the work is in the public's interest. You may be able to work for a for-profit employer if the job is relevant to your course of study. No matter who the outside employer is, it will need to have an established agreement with your college for you to receive work-study funds. Remember, to be eligible for federal financial aid, you must be enrolled and pursuing a degree or certificate. If you're not working toward a credential, Pell Grants and work-study won't be option, but you may still be able to take advantage of private scholarships -- just be sure to read the eligibility criteria carefully. [Explore what to know about financial aid in online programs.]-- Pay as you go: One of the great benefits to enrolling online is the flexible schedule, which can allow you to complete your college coursework around your responsibilities. But prospective students often overlook using their part- or full-time job earnings as an option for paying for college. Almost 80 percent of college students in 2015 worked at least part time while attending classes, according to the National Center for Education Statistics. By budgeting and thinking strategically about your college costs, you can likely reduce your dependence on student loans by paying a portion out of pocket. Many -- but not all -- online programs are less expensive than traditional programs and often have shorter payment periods. Six, eight or 10 weeks are common course durations. Because of the frequency of payments in an online setting, you may be well-placed to pay as you go and possibly avoid borrowing altogether. Attending college online and avoiding student loans may be challenging, but if you are willing to put in the effort, you can limit the amount you need to borrow. More from U.S. News Q&A: Understanding Student Loan Discharge Eligibility Student Loan Refinancing Isn't Right for All Borrowers
Read Next Story