Skip to main content

Shall we dance? NCAA Tournament outlook five days before Selection Sunday

Related News

WASHINGTON — It is hard to remember a year with more parity throughout college basketball than this one.

No team has fewer than four losses. Kansas (27-4), the best team in the country, lost to Oklahoma State (12-19), which lost to Missouri State (13-19), which lost to Southeast Missouri State (5-24), one of the very worst of the 351 Division I teams.

Of last year’s Sweet 16, two teams (UCLA and NC State) will miss the field without a miracle run to their respective conference tournament championships, with another on the bubble (Gonzaga), and a fourth banned from postseason play (Louisville).

The team with the top recruit in the nation, LSU, likely needs to win their conference tournament to have any chance of getting in.

With the field more unpredictable and wide open than ever, we built our own bracketology model, with the intent to attempt to predict the field of 68 as it is announced on Sunday. We have a few notable differences from some other sites, as you will see in the slides above.

Our methodology relies on record, conference rating (per KenPom.com), RPI, BPI, Top 50 wins, record against the top 100, bad losses, and additional bonuses or penalties for making the finals of and winning a conference tournament championship. It’s our first run, so it may not be perfect, but so far there aren’t any real outlying results, as far as we can tell. Sunday will be the first true test.

Rick and Dick: Why some sports innovations catch on while others flop

WASHINGTON — About 50 years ago, two men brought innovations to their respective sports and rode their distinctive styles to glory. One became industry standard, while the other was all but forgotten. Olympic high jumper Dick Fosbury’s unusual, backward takeoff was dubbed the Fosbury Flop. While he was mocked at first, his technique proved revolutionary and led him to set the new Olympic and American records while taking gold at the 1968 Summer Games. It was instantly copied and is now the model every aspiring high jumper follows as they learn the sport.
Read Next Story