Ugh! The financial world seems to have developed a touch of cognitive dissonance. On the one hand, the economy is slowly, but surely, getting better. On the other hand, investors seem jittery, like addicts waiting in agony for their next fix.
It can be confusing, but here’s what you need to know.
The economy is getting better. Economic momentum in the U.S. isn’t exactly as strong as we used to expect, but that doesn’t negate the fact that it is actually getting better. There are some promising signs.
Corporations continue to hire workers, and are doing so month after month. Already the economy is in the longest period of jobs growth on record, according to the U.S. Census Bureau. There is little sign of that ending.
Likewise, sales of cars and light trucks are steadily rising. U.S. consumers snapped up vehicles at an annualized rate of more than 17 million in February.
Housing is following a similar pattern, with new single-family homes selling at an annualized rate of 494,000 in January, according to the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
Growth in those areas is a good thing. “That’s a strong core,” says Matt Lloyd, chief investment strategist at Monument Colorado-based Advisors Asset Management.
However, growth is anemic compared to before the financial crisis — recoveries after such events tend to be slower, Lloyd says.
Companies are being cautious. Homebuilders want to make sure that they don’t construct too many new units, for fear of being caught in another real estate slump. Unlike every other economic recovery since the end of World War II, the housing market has played a relatively small role in boosting growth this time.
Still, however slow the economy looks, it’s a stark contrast with the volatile stock market.
Investors are nervous and jumpy. The Standard & Poor’s 500 index dropped more than 10 percent in the first five weeks of 2016, and then rallied nearly 8 percent in the last month. In many ways, the dip was reminiscent of the mass sell-off in August when it became clear to many investors that China’s growth was slowing. This time, the worry was partly about the continued sell-off in crude oil prices, which is seen as a bellwether of economic health in the global economy.
Those aren’t the only problems for investors. It’s also clear that the Federal Reserve is pulling back on what has been a period of very heavy involvement in the economy and the markets.
“Domestically, the subtle subtext is that we have reached the end of the Greenspan put,” says Joe Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM, a professional services firm in New York, referring to previous efforts by the Fed to support Wall Street through its policy. That allowed major institutions to take large risks with the knowledge that the government would come to the rescue.
This pattern culminated with the enormous banking bailout by the U.S. Treasury during the financial crisis.
That period is now clearly over. If you lose a financial bet, you are pretty much on your own, even if your firm goes bust. At least that’s what traders, investors and speculators believe is true.
Investors fear another collapse. Outside the U.S., some countries might not be capable of dealing with a financial crisis. Others see investor caution as the result of financial crisis-induced trauma.
“The ghosts of 2008 continue to haunt us,” says Bill Stone, chief investment strategist of PNC Asset Management Group. “Part of that is because we have never truly escaped the period of ultralow interest rates.”
The Fed has raised the cost of borrowing one time only since the end of the financial crisis. It says it will make further moves cautiously out of fear that acting aggressively may cause the economy to start deteriorating.
Still, in the minds of some investors the low interest rates are associated with the crisis, and until rates normalize it’s likely the negative association will remain.
On top of that, there are significant problems overseas that are worrying to investors. Negative interest rates have been introduced by Japan and the European Central Bank, in an effort to jump-start those sluggish economies.
Whether investors can shake their anxiety in short order remains to be seen, but until they do expect markets to be choppy.
More from U.S. News
8 Stocks to Buy for a Great 2016
8 Smart Ways to Invest in Metal Stocks
12 Terms Every Investor Needs to Know
The Disconnect Between the Economy and Wall Street originally appeared on usnews.com
