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3 Reasons to Ignore Wall Street’s Gloom-and-Doom Headlines

Financial news should come with a free pass to the spa or a meditation lesson these days. From the newly awakened bear in the U.S. market, crumbling oil companies, China’s economic upheaval and lack of wage growth, doomsayers would have you believe our economy is doomed for collapse at any moment.

Investors are fleeing to safer investment vehicles like bonds or crisis currencies like gold.

But our economy is doing far better than you might think — growing at a 2 percent pace, which isn’t fast growth, but safe and consistent. “Fundamentally, the U.S. is still in a pretty good place,” says Dryden Pence of Pence Wealth Management in Newport Beach, California.

Many of the concerns in today’s market fail to reflect the strength of the U.S. economy. But these headwinds get far more headlines, creating concerns among individual investors about the strength of their portfolios.

What’s truth and what’s fiction? We took a look at a few headline-grabbing news trends to see what’s going on and how it really affects investors.

Oil prices are out of whack. Low oil prices have led much of the up-and-down rides in the market. But the depressed prices aren’t all bad news. While companies that drill and ship oil have seen significant losses — earnings were down 75 percent in the energy sector for the fourth quarter of 2015 compared to a year ago — consumers are more than happy to fill their gas tanks with cheaper fuel.

“The reduction in oil prices is taking a long time to work its way through the economy,” Pence says. “The net benefit is still positive.”

And the biggest boost is to the individual pocketbook. AAA reports the national average price for gas is $1.70 per gallon, giving potential momentum to consumer discretionary companies such as Amazon.com (ticker: AMZN), Netflix (NFLX) and Starbucks Corp. (SBUX).

But much of that hasn’t happened yet because our “saving rate has gone up,” says Ian Shephardson, chief economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics.

The consumer discretionary sector is down 12 percent this year, even as FactSet Research forecasts consumer discretionary revenues growing by 12.5 percent, the biggest increase of any sector. That signals an opportunity to buy consumer stocks.

China’s struggles aren’t a primary concern. Volatility in China isn’t likely to go anywhere for a while. As the country switches from a manufacturing-focused economy to one centered on the consumer, it’s likely to suffer hiccups along the way.

“That much movement … is going to be disruptive,” Pence says. “If you expect volatility, it shouldn’t scare you that much.”

Especially if you understand what China’s transition will mean for the U.S. market. While watching China may be a great case study for the U.S. investor, it shouldn’t have a dramatic impact on investors’ portfolios. Exports to China account for less than 1 percent of the U.S. gross domestic product, according to Shepherdson, so the need for concern among most American companies is limited.

The same can be said about manufacturing, both in the U.S. and in China. While a strong U.S. dollar is blamed for manufacturing headwinds, the greenback’s strength helps U.S. consumers. And it’s notable that manufacturing accounts for 12 percent of GDP, while consumer consumption accounts for 68 percent.

But manufacturing companies have a prominent place in the stock market, prompting institutional investors to express a dramatic concern. Pence says investors should instead look for opportunities in technology, health care and telecommunications, while avoiding manufacturing altogether.

Stagnated wage growth has reversed. For the past five years, as the economy swung back into full force and jobs returned, one notable indicator continued to lag: Wage growth remained flat or grew slowly. In the past six months, however, wages finally began showing some momentum — average hourly earnings jumped 2.5 percent in January.

Economists have been waiting for wage increases to catch up to the nation’s falling unemployment rate, which is now less than 5 percent. With fewer people out of work, companies have to compete to entice talent. That will force them “to pay more for their staff,” Shepherdson says.

The simple supply-versus-demand dynamic also bodes well for consumer spending and coincides with historically slow inflation and cheap oil, giving a lot of reasons for consumers to spend money.

Once wages begin to rise, the Federal Reserve will be under increased pressure to increase interest rates again. “A strong economy has consequences,” Shepherdson says. And no doubt, investors will panic again when that happens.

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3 Reasons to Ignore Wall Street’s Gloom-and-Doom Headlines originally appeared on usnews.com

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