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How a Buy-Sell-Hold Strategy Works in a Bear Market

The phrase “putting your money to work” is a staple of financial services marketing. But right now, would your money do more for you if it took a nap?

Moving a large swath of your portfolio to cash is a defensive move that protects new and near-retirees from losses, argues one advisor and author. Accepting minimal returns in a money market account is better, he says, than watching hard-earned equity erode if the market’s correction worsens.

Other advisors disagree, pointing to the long time horizon for investors in their 50s, 60s and 70s who need to stay in the market to capture returns that outrun inflation for their later retirements. Here’s how the two sides square off.

Ken Moraif, author of “Buy, Hold, Sell” and an advisor with Money Matters in Plano, Texas, wants his clients to convert equities to cash, usually in the form of staid money market accounts and similar vehicles.

His rationale: a stop-loss strategy for those approaching or in retirement. It’s better to step out of a market that could undermine years of saving than to cross your fingers and hope your equities will somehow hold their value and will be there when you need income, he says.

“Nobody can time the market. I’m not advocating that,” Moraif says. His larger point, though, is that those near or in retirement can’t afford to wait at least seven years for the market to recover, if it drops as much as it did in the crashes of 2001 and 2008. That’s especially critical for those on the brink of retirement, he says. “This is the most important 10-year period in your entire financial life,” he says, because drawing down a shrunken portfolio early in retirement leaves nothing to reinvest when the market recovers.

“It’s crucial to be thinking defensively, not offensively,” Moraif says. “What you have to worry about is not losing money. Giving up returns is the least of your worries. You don’t always have to be aggressive.”

Still, individual investors have an aversion to letting their funds coast in a money market, short-term annuity or other highly secure account that yields perhaps 1 or 2 percent, if anything.

Moraif argues that parking funds in these minimally productive accounts is just a different take on preserving equity. “I’d prefer to make 4 percent, but having zero percent is better than losing money,” he says.

And, he adds, choosing cash equivalent accounts that have short terms, no fees or both means investors can respond quickly when market opportunities arise.

It’s a controversial strategy. Other advisors instead recommend that the newly and nearly retired continue to have about half of their portfolios in equities, as their expected lifespan of at least 20 more years offers enough time for stocks to recover and to regain growth.

John Gajkowski, co-founder of Money Managers Financial Group in Oakbrook, Illinois, says asset allocations should be based on age, time horizon and financial goals, not on the market of the moment. “No matter what your age, you need some money in equities to be positioned for growth for the long term,” he says. He recommends that clients about to retire or in retirement channel 55 percent to 60 percent of their assets into “safe, secure investments” such as high-quality bonds, and the remainder to equities, with a small slice in cash.

That assumes the equities and bonds are high-quality and not speculative. “If you’ve got half of your portfolio in ‘safe and secure,’ when the market goes down 10 percent, your whole portfolio isn’t down 10 percent,” Gajkowski says.

Such a strategy contains the effect of market gyrations, Gajkowski says. “Yes, you could go 100 percent cash, but then when would you get back in?” he asks.

Jon Yankee, CEO of FJY Financial in Reston, Virginia, says today’s 60-year-olds have a 30-year time horizon. An 80-year-old might be better served with a higher allocation of cash, but new retirees likely have time to recover from a drop in the market.

The real danger that the current, anticipated market correction poses to individual investors is the urge to make decisions based on personal forecasting, or to make decisions based on what would have worked, retroactively, in the last downturn, he says.

As you progress to and through retirement, you need more cash, but that’s a factor of life stage, time horizon and risk tolerance, Yankee says, not a reaction to momentary market madness. “You need to only sell when the thing you’re holding is a bigger part of your allocation than it should be,” he says. “None of us can predict the future, and those who say they can just got lucky.”

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How a Buy-Sell-Hold Strategy Works in a Bear Market originally appeared on usnews.com

Don’t Settle for Student Loans to Pay for Online Education

Online college programs are becoming a more popular choice for prospective students, with one study finding that more than 6 million students enrolled in at least one online course in fall 2015. The popularity of these courses can be attributed in part to their flexibility with working adults' schedules, students' ability to progress more quickly through online programs and, oftentimes, cheaper tuition. [See 10 low-cost online bachelor's programs for out-of-state students.]Online degrees can be beneficial to many college students, but some studies have shown online learners complete their programs at lower rates than students at traditional brick-and-mortar campuses. Individuals with student loans but no degree comprise two-thirds of defaulted borrowers. Though these numbers are not encouraging, just like for traditional programs, there are ways to reduce how much you'll need to borrow for an online program to ensure you won't become one of these statistics. Don't just settle on borrowing student loans to cover the whole cost of your program and living expenses. Instead, start thinking about how to cut costs and cover your balance in different ways, such as the following. -- Grants and scholarships: Even though you are taking an online course, you can still apply and receive grants and scholarships. But your first step should be to complete the Free Application for Federal Student Aid, commonly referred to as the FAFSA, which will allow you to receive a Pell Grant if your expected family contribution is low enough. The EFC criteria and award amounts are adjusted annually, but the 2017-2018 academic year awards range from $606 to $5,920, which could significantly lower the amount you borrow annually. Your next step is to apply for scholarships. You can start by checking online scholarship search engines, such as the Salt Scholarship Search, College Board's BigFuture and Peterson's. But don't forget to take advantage of local organizations and your school's financial aid office. Both may offer scholarships that you can't find with a national scholarship search. [Review these 10 sites to kick off your scholarship search.]For instance, organizations like the Elks Club, Knights of Columbus or the Rotary Club typically offer scholarships annually to local students. Just because you're going to school online doesn't mean you're ineligible. Visit your local library for scholarship listings, and ask around town. You might be surprised how many local organizations offer scholarships. While these scholarships typically aren't large, every little bit counts. Each dollar you receive in a scholarship is a dollar you don't have to borrow and pay interest on. -- Work-study: Another option for online students may be work-study awards. Not all students enrolled in online programs are eligible, but students at some schools -- including, for example, SUNY Empire State College and Liberty University -- are. Work-study awards are not given upfront like scholarships and grants. In most cases, they are an offer to earn up to the awarded amount if you secure an eligible work-study job. While there is a misconception that all work-study jobs must be on campus, students can work for off-campus, nonprofit or public employers as long as the work is in the public's interest. You may be able to work for a for-profit employer if the job is relevant to your course of study. No matter who the outside employer is, it will need to have an established agreement with your college for you to receive work-study funds. Remember, to be eligible for federal financial aid, you must be enrolled and pursuing a degree or certificate. If you're not working toward a credential, Pell Grants and work-study won't be option, but you may still be able to take advantage of private scholarships -- just be sure to read the eligibility criteria carefully. [Explore what to know about financial aid in online programs.]-- Pay as you go: One of the great benefits to enrolling online is the flexible schedule, which can allow you to complete your college coursework around your responsibilities. But prospective students often overlook using their part- or full-time job earnings as an option for paying for college. Almost 80 percent of college students in 2015 worked at least part time while attending classes, according to the National Center for Education Statistics. By budgeting and thinking strategically about your college costs, you can likely reduce your dependence on student loans by paying a portion out of pocket. Many -- but not all -- online programs are less expensive than traditional programs and often have shorter payment periods. Six, eight or 10 weeks are common course durations. Because of the frequency of payments in an online setting, you may be well-placed to pay as you go and possibly avoid borrowing altogether. Attending college online and avoiding student loans may be challenging, but if you are willing to put in the effort, you can limit the amount you need to borrow. More from U.S. News Q&A: Understanding Student Loan Discharge Eligibility Student Loan Refinancing Isn't Right for All Borrowers
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