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Gov’t: Great Recession bit less weak than thought

By WTOP Staff
Here’s a small consolation: The Great Recession wasn’t quite as horrendous as previously thought.
But it was still pretty horrendous: Updated government estimates from January 2009 through December 2011 show that the downturn remains by far the worst recession since the Great Depression.
And growth since the recession officially ended in June 2009 has been slightly less than previous estimates. That’s a reminder of how weak the recovery has been.
The revisions were released Friday by the Commerce Department’s Bureau of Economic Analysis with its report on April-June growth. Each year in July, the bureau revises the previous three years of data on the nation’s gross domestic product, the broadest measure of the economy.
The changes show the economy shrank 4.7 percent from the start of the recession in December 2007 until it ended three years ago. That’s 0.4 percentage point less than the previous estimate of 5.1 percent.
The main reason for the revision: State and local governments spent more in 2009 than initially thought.
Still, only two previous recessions suffered contractions greater than 3 percent. One was in 1957, the other in 1973.
Since the Great Recession ended, growth has been modest at best. From July 2009 through the end of 2011, the economy grew a total of 5.8 percent. That’s down from an earlier measure of 6.2 percent.
The economy grew at an average annual rate of 0.3 percent from 2008 through 2011, the government said. That’s down from an earlier measure of 0.4 percent.
Some quarters were revised significantly. The government says the economy grew at an annual rate of 4.1 percent in last year’s fourth quarter, up from a previous estimate of only 3 percent. That was because companies added more to their stockpiles, and governments spent more.
And the first and second quarters of 2010 were revised down sharply, from nearly 4 percent each to 2.3 percent and 2.2 percent, respectively. That reflected much less investment in business equipment and software.
The revisions are based on more complete data from a range of sources, including annual Census surveys of retailers and manufacturers and IRS tax records. The IRS data is made available only after a two-year lag. The Census data are also delayed.
Here are the changes the Commerce Department made to the past 12 quarters:
(Figures in percentages)
Period Revised figure Previous estimate
2009, 1st quarter -5.3 -6.7
2009, 2nd quarter -0.3 -0.7
2009, 3rd quarter 1.4 1.7
2009, 4th quarter 4.0 3.8
2010, 1st quarter 2.3 3.9
2010, 2nd quarter 2.2 3.8
2010, 3rd quarter 2.6 2.5
2010, 4th quarter 2.4 2.3
2011, 1st quarter 0.1 0.4
2011, 2nd quarter 2.5 1.3
2011, 3rd quarter 1.3 1.8
2011, 4th quarter 4.1 3.0

Don’t Settle for Student Loans to Pay for Online Education

By WTOP Staff
Online college programs are becoming a more popular choice for prospective students, with one study finding that more than 6 million students enrolled in at least one online course in fall 2015. The popularity of these courses can be attributed in part to their flexibility with working adults' schedules, students' ability to progress more quickly through online programs and, oftentimes, cheaper tuition. [See 10 low-cost online bachelor's programs for out-of-state students.]Online degrees can be beneficial to many college students, but some studies have shown online learners complete their programs at lower rates than students at traditional brick-and-mortar campuses. Individuals with student loans but no degree comprise two-thirds of defaulted borrowers. Though these numbers are not encouraging, just like for traditional programs, there are ways to reduce how much you'll need to borrow for an online program to ensure you won't become one of these statistics. Don't just settle on borrowing student loans to cover the whole cost of your program and living expenses. Instead, start thinking about how to cut costs and cover your balance in different ways, such as the following. -- Grants and scholarships: Even though you are taking an online course, you can still apply and receive grants and scholarships. But your first step should be to complete the Free Application for Federal Student Aid, commonly referred to as the FAFSA, which will allow you to receive a Pell Grant if your expected family contribution is low enough. The EFC criteria and award amounts are adjusted annually, but the 2017-2018 academic year awards range from $606 to $5,920, which could significantly lower the amount you borrow annually. Your next step is to apply for scholarships. You can start by checking online scholarship search engines, such as the Salt Scholarship Search, College Board's BigFuture and Peterson's. But don't forget to take advantage of local organizations and your school's financial aid office. Both may offer scholarships that you can't find with a national scholarship search. [Review these 10 sites to kick off your scholarship search.]For instance, organizations like the Elks Club, Knights of Columbus or the Rotary Club typically offer scholarships annually to local students. Just because you're going to school online doesn't mean you're ineligible. Visit your local library for scholarship listings, and ask around town. You might be surprised how many local organizations offer scholarships. While these scholarships typically aren't large, every little bit counts. Each dollar you receive in a scholarship is a dollar you don't have to borrow and pay interest on. -- Work-study: Another option for online students may be work-study awards. Not all students enrolled in online programs are eligible, but students at some schools -- including, for example, SUNY Empire State College and Liberty University -- are. Work-study awards are not given upfront like scholarships and grants. In most cases, they are an offer to earn up to the awarded amount if you secure an eligible work-study job. While there is a misconception that all work-study jobs must be on campus, students can work for off-campus, nonprofit or public employers as long as the work is in the public's interest. You may be able to work for a for-profit employer if the job is relevant to your course of study. No matter who the outside employer is, it will need to have an established agreement with your college for you to receive work-study funds. Remember, to be eligible for federal financial aid, you must be enrolled and pursuing a degree or certificate. If you're not working toward a credential, Pell Grants and work-study won't be option, but you may still be able to take advantage of private scholarships -- just be sure to read the eligibility criteria carefully. [Explore what to know about financial aid in online programs.]-- Pay as you go: One of the great benefits to enrolling online is the flexible schedule, which can allow you to complete your college coursework around your responsibilities. But prospective students often overlook using their part- or full-time job earnings as an option for paying for college. Almost 80 percent of college students in 2015 worked at least part time while attending classes, according to the National Center for Education Statistics. By budgeting and thinking strategically about your college costs, you can likely reduce your dependence on student loans by paying a portion out of pocket. Many -- but not all -- online programs are less expensive than traditional programs and often have shorter payment periods. Six, eight or 10 weeks are common course durations. Because of the frequency of payments in an online setting, you may be well-placed to pay as you go and possibly avoid borrowing altogether. Attending college online and avoiding student loans may be challenging, but if you are willing to put in the effort, you can limit the amount you need to borrow. More from U.S. News Q&A: Understanding Student Loan Discharge Eligibility Student Loan Refinancing Isn't Right for All Borrowers
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