WASHINGTON – D.C. area residents are growing more distrustful of nationally elected leaders, but a new WTOP Beltway Poll conducted by Heart + Mind Strategies also shows local residents are slightly more optimistic about the economy.
Just one in four residents (26 percent) believes the country is heading in the right direction, a drop of six points from September. Nationally, only 21 percent agree with the direction the nation is heading.
Just 7 percent of local residents trust national elected officials to “do what’s right,” compared to 6 percent nationally. Seven percent of area residents say they have confidence in elected officials, which is similar to national sentiment.
The Beltway Consumer Economic Index — a measure of optimism and pessimism related to economic conditions — bumped up slightly. But the 2.5 point increase is still low, at 57.6 percent.
The poll shows the Washington area is more optimistic than the nation as a whole.
Data released by The Conference Board showed a six-point drop in national consumer confidence to 39.8 percent, the lowest level since the 2008-2009 recessions.
The WTOP Beltway Poll shows consumer economic confidence still differs a lot across the region.
The Consumer Economic Confidence Index finds D.C. residents with the greatest increase in confidence since a month ago — up 9.9 percent. By contrast, Virginia residents’ confidence dipped by 0.4 percent.
| D.C. Area | Va. | Md. | D.C. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| September | 59.8 | 50.0 | 58.3 | |
| October | 59.4 | 51.5 | 68.2 | |
| Change | -0.4 | +1.5 | +9.9 | |
As for the Beltway Voter Political Confidence index, it dropped 2.9 points, to 34.2 percent in the past month. The index is a measure of optimism and pessimism in elected officials and the nation.
Beltway voter political confidence is weakest among Tea Party supporters (17.7 percent). But Republicans showed a 0.2 percent increase in voter confidence, while Democrats had a nearly five point decline in confidence.
| D.C. Area | Va. | Md. | D.C. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| September | 32.7 | 36.6 | 46.2 | |
| October | 31.8 | 32.9 | 42.9 | |
| Change | -0.9 | -3.7 | -3.3 | |
Virginia residents have the largest gap between consumer economic confidence and voter political confidence. Maryland residents have the smallest gap in confidence. D.C. has the highest numbers in terms of voter political confidence and consumer economic confidence.
The findings come from a quantitative public opinion poll in the Washington, D.C. area and from a national quantitative public opinion poll conducted across the United States. The D.C. metro phone survey was conducted among 641 adults age 18+ and between October 10-13, 2011.
This included representative samples of 240 in Virginia (Arlington, Fairfax, Fauquier, Loudoun, Prince William, Spotsylvania, Stafford), 301 in Maryland (Anne Arundel, Calvert, Charles, Frederick, Montgomery, Prince George’s), and 100 in the District of Columbia. The margin of error for a sample of this size is +/- 3.9 at 95 percent confidence.
The Beltway Consumer Confidence Index is calculated across five questions that measure positive/neutral/negative opinions toward current business conditions, business conditions six months from now, current employment conditions, employment conditions six months from now, and personal family income six months from now.
The Beltway Voter Confidence Index is calculated across three questions that measure overall trust in elected officials, confidence in elected officials to address the economy, and those that say the country is heading in the right direction. The index is a derived variable by looking at the mean across the numerical scales of these questions.
Heart + Mind Strategies, a non-partisan market research consultancy based in Reston, Va., conducted the polls.
(Copyright 2011 by WTOP. All rights reserved.)